Lions’ upset over Saints completes 20,000-to-1 parlay, paying $100K

“Of course, he didn’t believe me.”

Polia said she has loved sports her entire life — a Celtics logo tattoo on her hip is a testament to her love of Boston, which she left because she got sick of the winters.

Her dream, she says, is to make Vegas a pit stop on the way to owning a beach house in California.

The final game of the parlay was on Monday night, where she had the Lions as a three-point underdog. Even though she was getting higher odds for picking against the spread, she said she spent time just picking who she thought was going to win the game instead.

One of the biggest long shots in betting history will be cashed on Wednesday afternoon when Tayla Polia gets paid $100,005 for her $5, 15-leg NFL parlay that came through this week.

The closest game she had was the Steelers, who were six-point favorites on the card, beating the Broncos by a touchdown after spotting Denver a 17-point lead. They scored 61.

Polia then called up William Hill and the person on the other line informed her that she was picking against the spread. “So I thought it was strange when I looked at it [Tuesday] morning and saw that I won.”

Thanks to one of the most improbable betting stories, that might happen sooner rather than later.

Polia said, upon hearing the news, she fell to the floor of the law firm where she works in disbelief and, minutes later, said she was going out to lunch.

“I somehow drove back home to tell my boyfriend in person,” Polia said. Not only did Polia’s payout come through, but a 15-game parlay where bettors just have to pick the winners also hit. Her card had the Cardinals and Bengals as four-point favorites, and they won by 23 and 10, respectively.

“On Sunday morning, my boyfriend and I were sitting on the couch talking about how spreads worked,” Polia said. Polia had the Giants as a five-point underdog.

The Chargers, as a two-point favorite, beat the Dolphins by 16. Polia also was required to pick the over or under on that game. She had the Falcons as a three-point underdog, and the Texans and Redskins as one-point underdogs; they won and covered.

An hour later, Polia, with $20 in her account, risked $5 on the parlay. The Chiefs, as an eight-point favorite, crushed the Ravens by 20.

The 26-year-old Polia, who had just moved to Las Vegas two months ago, got 20,000-to-1 odds on the parlay card on betting firm William Hill’s mobile site. They beat the Saints, 35-27.

For William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich, this weekend wasn’t a good one, to say the least. She bet that both teams would score more than 45 points. She cashed in by being on the right side of the point spread in 14 games and correctly picking the over in the  Steelers/ Broncos game.

The against-all-odds story gets better: Polia said this is only the second bet she has placed in her life.

“I remembered that I picked the  Giants and they lost,” Polia said. The Patriots and  Seahawks were 14-point favorites and they both won by 17. William Hill paid out a couple times in Delaware, where betting on the cards is permitted.. “He was frustrated since I wasn’t getting it right away.”

Bogdanovich said the $5 15-team parlay card for $100,000 has hit before. The Packers won by 10 as a three-point favorite. The Panthers beat the Giants by three. A progressive pot of $170,782 was split by 17 people.

Aside from the Giants as five-point underdogs, Polia’s card had the Vikings as a five-point favorite, and they won by 21

10 Tips for Betting on Football

And why not? We have unconditional love for the sport and betting $50 or $100 on a game adds an extra rush of adrenaline. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.”

And remember, in the immortal words of “Fast” Eddie Felson, “Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.”

But even though the math says it’s virtually impossible to win on a consistent basis, Americans continue to bet on football. The payout is just the same as far as he is concerned.

Even Hollywood is not immune – think Two for the Money with Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey.

1. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.”

“The bookies fear and despise a tiny coterie of professional bettors known as ‘the sharps,'” Konik says.

So, how much should you bet a game?

And where does all that money go?

“A sharp or smart has a plan of what he wants to do,” says Vaccaro, the director of sports operations and public relations at Lucky’s Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas. He is not taken in by being involved in USC-Notre Dame just because it is the biggest watched game of the day. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the sharps are laying heavy money on the points. Drinking and Gambling Don’t Mix – “There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling,” Moseman says. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites. If you want advice about sports betting, find someone who has a successful track record. “As for me, the best bet in football is betting the point spread or over/under totals on individual games.

However, Konik adds that there are some bettors who actually know how to beat the bookies.

Another difference between squares and sharps is how they approach betting on game day.

Certainly not back into the pockets of the average bettor. “Common wisdom says that over the course of a long football season the average man or woman will pick approximately 50 percent winners. Focus on Conferences – “The best way to win money betting football is to develop a niche and follow it closely,” Moseman advises. Shop For Numbers – “Another important aspect of betting on football is shopping for the best number,” Moseman explains. “Thus, the bookies love and cherish the squares.”

8. “Teams play inspired ball at home. There are almost an infinite number of scenarios that can happen in a single football game. On college you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. “If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can. In fact, sports bettors must pick 52.4 percent winners just to break even.”

5. Chasing losses is the fastest way to the poor house.”

Also, it’s probably a good idea to disregard advice from the myriad of ex-players and football experts you see on television each week. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”

3.

“There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” Moseman says.

So, how much are we gambling each football season? . Money Management – “This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting on sports and possibly the most neglected,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years.

“In an average season, fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit,” Gordon says. They use powerful computers that can process millions of bits of data and produce a more accurate point-spread line than the bookmakers.”

Michael Konik, a sports writer and best-selling author of The Smart Money (Simon & Schuster 2006), explains why it is so hard for the recreational gambler to win at betting on football.

“The talking heads on TV know nothing about sports betting,” says Sevransky. Locks Don’t Exist – “Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing, especially against the spread, can be infinitesimally small,” Gordon says. “When you’re in a good rhythm and winning, you want to increase your bets. “Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn’t otherwise make. “If you listen to their advice, you are sure to lose. Giving 11 to 10 odds is almost always the cheapest price you can give.”

So, is it possible for the average square to become a little sharper in making football bets this season? According to professionals like Vacarro, Konik and Gordon, amateur bettors have the best chance to win if they demonstrate a little patience and follow the 10 basic tips below. He loses year after year, according to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of How to Beat the Sports Books (Cardoza Publishing 2005). But, when you’re struggling, that’s when you want to reduce your bet size until you get out of your slump. So underdogs tend to be slightly undervalued – except by the sharps.”

6. Consider Underdogs – “In the long-run, it’s easier to win betting on the underdog,” Konik says.

9. “He is not jaded by teams and does not bet with his heart. “Squares usually bet later in the week and they tend to pick the favorites.

Ted Sevransky, a well-known Las Vegas gambler and sports consultant with Sportsmemo.com, agrees.

7. “For example, if you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”

Newspapers and popular sports sites routinely publish the lines or point spreads for games, and football insiders offer their picks to viewers each week on ESPN and other cable networks. Avoid Exotic Bets – “For very skilled handicappers, with a proven track record, there can, at least in theory, be value in betting parlays,” says Gordon on the type of bet that combines two or more individual wagers. Bet at the Right Time – “The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early,” Moseman says. The only touts bettors should consider are the ones who talk about the long haul and realistic winning percentages, which are in the upper 50 percent to lower 60 percent range.”

While these tips don’t guarantee you’re going to win, hopefully they can make you a little less square and a little more sharp in your picks this season. Oakland comes to mind) seem like the Super Bowl. The only locks that exist are those that need keys to open them.”

“The standard bet requires gamblers to lay $11 for every $10 they want to win with the extra $1 or 10 percent known as the juice,” Konik says. “The key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose.”

“Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” Vaccaro says. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines.”

Although exact figures are impossible to calculate, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, widely considered to be Las Vegas’ most influential bookmaker, Americans probably wager more than $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined. Also, being “in action” can make a dull late-afternoon game (Buffalo vs. Avoid Chasing Bets – “Don’t do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day,” cautions Moseman on the dangerous practice of trying to immediately win back your losses.

4. Thanks to the juice, the only one who profits in this scenario is the bookmaker. Otherwise, you’re better off doing your own research.”

“The biggest mistake that amateur bettors make is they increase their bets when they are losing,” Sevransky says. If North Texas is his best bet on a Saturday then that is his bet. Research Football Services – “Most sports services realize that most people who sign up with them are insecure,” Gordon warns.

Moseman agrees and especially likes home underdogs. “There will be more discrepancy in the numbers at different sports books. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit.

“A square is the average, unsophisticated gambler whose decision making is based on hunches, media manipulation, or spurious systems that cannot overcome the bookmaker’s inherent mathematical advantage,” Konik explains. “Most people prefer to bet on the ‘better’ team, the one that will probably win the game. “In trying to bamboozle potential customers, many services make claims about having scouts all over the country that give them inside information and promise 70 or even 80 percent winners, as if the bookmakers were the biggest suckers in the world.

But that doesn’t mean you have to bet like a “square” and throw away your hard-earned money.

2. “In the NFL, a game will often be totally turned around by one or two plays, or even a single penalty. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind.”

Betting on football games; whether it’s through a local bookie, an offshore Internet site or a Nevada casino (still the only legal place in America to make football bets), most of us have done it or know of someone who has.

10. “The sharps are usually members of a betting syndicate privy to the most up-to-date information on injuries, weather, game plans, and, most important, the real power of the teams involved. “Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”

“A square or recreational player might have a vague plan, but after two Corona’s he will definitely run to the window and make a hasty decision on the USC-Notre Dame game because he wants to be involved in the party atmosphere,” Vaccaro says. Slim underdogs regularly win outright

Free Parlay Calculator and Parlay Odds at VegasInsider.com.

If one or more selections is a tie, postponed, incomplete, cancelled or rescheduled for another day, then the wager reverts to the next lowest number. For a single bet, 2 to 8 teams or totals can be selected.

In order for the parlay bet to win, every one of the wagers must win or push (tie).

**Parlay Calculator based on Offshore Odds

  

. For example, if you place a 5 team parlay and have 4 winners and a tie, your wager pays out as a 4 team parlay. If betting the underdog, you must enter the line with a plus (+) sign at the beginning. If any of the selections lose, your wager loses, regardless of the outcome or cancellation of the other games. If you place a 2 team parlay and one team wins and one ties, the wager becomes a straight bet.

The resulting wager will have the same risk amount with the win being calculated to reflect the odds of the remaining team (Example: On a two team $100 parlay with team A +110 and team B -110 if A ties and B wins the resulting wager will be a straight play on B risking $100 to win $91).

Parlays with spreads and totals at standard -110 odds, use the Fixed Odds Table.

Parlays with spreads and totals with odds not at the standard -110 value, use the True Odds Calculator.

2

13/5

13/53

6/1

6/14

10/1

12.28/15

20/1

24.35/16

40/1

47.41/17

75/1

91.42/18

150/1

175.44/1

NOTE: If betting a favorite, you must enter the line with a minus (-) sign at the beginning. A 2 team parlay might pay 13/5, a three team parlay might pay 6/1, a four team parlay might pay 10/1, and so forth with the payouts getting higher with more teams or totals selected. With a VI Gold Membership, you can SAVE 10% off a Live Odds subscription, SAVE 20% off Daily Pick packages, and receive access to up to 1,000 Member Plays each month!

A parlay is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers for a high payout