The huge problem with this is that the nfl line, ncaaf line or nhl line may have moved too much by that time, and all of the value has been sucked out of the unpopular side.
By: Manny G
College Basketball sports betting was not too shabby either, with a two-year mark of 492-356-22, 58.0 percent, +91.96 units. To illustrate, let us say that San Diego Chargers open at -7 over the Miami Dolohins, and over 70 percent of the sports bets placed on the game are on San Diego. Quite a few RLM followers watch the moves until almost game time, and then bet accordingly. We tracked the top five books for each of the pointspread sports for the last two years, as as you can see, this strategy has been profitable in every sport. Note that these records are for sides only and do not include totals.
The NFL sports betting is generally considered the toughest sport to beat, yet blindly following this method produced an exceptional 59.2 percent win rate last season, improving the two year record to 328-249-12, 56.8 percent, +59.06 units. Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money. The records quoted below are based on the bets being made at the triggering books, so beating the move by a half-point or a few cents now and then would actually make your record even better.
NBA sports betting has the lowest two-year five-book RLM winning percentage among the 11/10 sports, but then again, every gambler in the world would kill to go 382-301-9, 55.9 percent, +48.90 units, and the 57.5 percent win rate this past season is nothing to sneeze at. Sure, using this approach leaves open the possibility of the line turning around and moving back against you, but as you will see in bit, betting as soon as an RLM qualifies has been profitable in every major North American sport such as the last two seasons, so if one line turns around, so be it. Last year was a good RLM season for NFL sports betting (45-29, 60.8 percent, +11.91), but two sportsbooks that were in the top five in NFL RLM in both seasons.
To back this up, our friends over at Prosportsonline.net have tracked the records for games where over 60 percent of the public has been on one side, yet there was reverse line movement of at least one full point from the opening number at the top sportsbooks in NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB. Keep an eyes on the top five sportsbooks at Sports Insights though, as NCAAF sports betting has been very liquid in that regard, with only one sportsbook (believe it or not, Bodog) finishing in the top five both years.
Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side, yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number at the top five sportsbooks in MLB and NHL sports betting has also been profitable. Another important recommendation is to use a slow moving (but reliable) sportsbook. Keep a close eye on Canbet here, as that Australian sportsbook cracked the top five both years.
The highest two-year winning percentage using RLM from the top five books belongs to College Football, which went 480-341-10, 58.5 percent, +95.10 units. This would make Miami +6 the RLM play.
So what causes RLM when the aim of most sportsbooks is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors; the one’s who give sports betting advice.
The proper way to make a sports bet using reverse line movement is to place your bet as soon as there is an RLM of one full point (or 10 cents in MLB and NHL) off of the opening line. Furthermore, they list the RLM records for many individual sportsbook, making it easy to spot which books this system is working at and which books it may be best to ignore.
Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run, and again, the best thing is that there in absolutely no conventional sports handicapping necessary..
. This is where an important word of caution is in order though. However, instead of the line rising as you might expect, it instead drops to Chargers -6. It should be noted that many fewer MLB games have qualified so far this season (is the whole world using RLM now?), but smaller profits is still profit.Again, these records are for Money Lines only and do not include totals.Finally, NHL sports betting has picked up 148.49 units in two years, and unlike MLB, NHL had four sportsbooks out of the top five gain double-digit units this past season. RLM takes place when more money/ sportsbook picks are bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). All of this will be fun to follow (not to mention profitable) when every sport except baseball are going on simultaneously during the winter months.
So what we recommend is to only use the top five each season for each individual sport (in terms of units won). Carib ruled the roost season at 93-66-9, 58.5 percent, +18.55 units after ABC held the penthouse spot in the 2007-08 season.
So what exactly is reverse line movement? RLM takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. Keep in mind that NCAAB was the most liquid sport in terms of top-five sportbooks however, with not a single sportsbook making the top five both years. This may enable you to get the stale more favorable sports betting line at the time the reverse line movement hits at the triggering Sportsbook
Also, being “in action” can make a dull late-afternoon game (Buffalo vs.
Certainly not back into the pockets of the average bettor. Drinking and Gambling Don’t Mix – “There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling,” Moseman says. He loses year after year, according to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of How to Beat the Sports Books (Cardoza Publishing 2005). The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. Avoid Exotic Bets – “For very skilled handicappers, with a proven track record, there can, at least in theory, be value in betting parlays,” says Gordon on the type of bet that combines two or more individual wagers. There are almost an infinite number of scenarios that can happen in a single football game. And why not? We have unconditional love for the sport and betting $50 or $100 on a game adds an extra rush of adrenaline. Research Football Services – “Most sports services realize that most people who sign up with them are insecure,” Gordon warns. Oakland comes to mind) seem like the Super Bowl. “In trying to bamboozle potential customers, many services make claims about having scouts all over the country that give them inside information and promise 70 or even 80 percent winners, as if the bookmakers were the biggest suckers in the world. Bet at the Right Time – “The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early,” Moseman says. In fact, sports bettors must pick 52.4 percent winners just to break even.”
And remember, in the immortal words of “Fast” Eddie Felson, “Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.”
Also, it’s probably a good idea to disregard advice from the myriad of ex-players and football experts you see on television each week. Avoid Chasing Bets – “Don’t do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day,” cautions Moseman on the dangerous practice of trying to immediately win back your losses. But, when you’re struggling, that’s when you want to reduce your bet size until you get out of your slump. “In the NFL, a game will often be totally turned around by one or two plays, or even a single penalty. “Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”
“A square is the average, unsophisticated gambler whose decision making is based on hunches, media manipulation, or spurious systems that cannot overcome the bookmaker’s inherent mathematical advantage,” Konik explains.
5. Thanks to the juice, the only one who profits in this scenario is the bookmaker. Focus on Conferences – “The best way to win money betting football is to develop a niche and follow it closely,” Moseman advises.
“The talking heads on TV know nothing about sports betting,” says Sevransky.
10. “The sharps are usually members of a betting syndicate privy to the most up-to-date information on injuries, weather, game plans, and, most important, the real power of the teams involved. “As for me, the best bet in football is betting the point spread or over/under totals on individual games.
However, Konik adds that there are some bettors who actually know how to beat the bookies. “If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can. Consider Underdogs – “In the long-run, it’s easier to win betting on the underdog,” Konik says. .
“The bookies fear and despise a tiny coterie of professional bettors known as ‘the sharps,'” Konik says. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines.”
Although exact figures are impossible to calculate, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, widely considered to be Las Vegas’ most influential bookmaker, Americans probably wager more than $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined. Giving 11 to 10 odds is almost always the cheapest price you can give.”
Michael Konik, a sports writer and best-selling author of The Smart Money (Simon & Schuster 2006), explains why it is so hard for the recreational gambler to win at betting on football. So underdogs tend to be slightly undervalued – except by the sharps.”
4. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the sharps are laying heavy money on the points. “Common wisdom says that over the course of a long football season the average man or woman will pick approximately 50 percent winners.
“A sharp or smart has a plan of what he wants to do,” says Vaccaro, the director of sports operations and public relations at Lucky’s Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas.
2. Chasing losses is the fastest way to the poor house.”
So, how much are we gambling each football season?
And where does all that money go?
Moseman agrees and especially likes home underdogs. “Teams play inspired ball at home. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind.”
“There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” Moseman says. He is not taken in by being involved in USC-Notre Dame just because it is the biggest watched game of the day. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”
Newspapers and popular sports sites routinely publish the lines or point spreads for games, and football insiders offer their picks to viewers each week on ESPN and other cable networks. “The key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose.”
“The standard bet requires gamblers to lay $11 for every $10 they want to win with the extra $1 or 10 percent known as the juice,” Konik says. Otherwise, you’re better off doing your own research.”
So, is it possible for the average square to become a little sharper in making football bets this season? According to professionals like Vacarro, Konik and Gordon, amateur bettors have the best chance to win if they demonstrate a little patience and follow the 10 basic tips below. “Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn’t otherwise make. The payout is just the same as far as he is concerned. On college you will be able to find different lines at different sports books.
7. “Squares usually bet later in the week and they tend to pick the favorites.
“Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” Vaccaro says. “Most people prefer to bet on the ‘better’ team, the one that will probably win the game. They use powerful computers that can process millions of bits of data and produce a more accurate point-spread line than the bookmakers.”
While these tips don’t guarantee you’re going to win, hopefully they can make you a little less square and a little more sharp in your picks this season. “When you’re in a good rhythm and winning, you want to increase your bets. “If you listen to their advice, you are sure to lose. If you want advice about sports betting, find someone who has a successful track record. The only locks that exist are those that need keys to open them.”
So, how much should you bet a game?
6. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.”
Even Hollywood is not immune – think Two for the Money with Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey.
Ted Sevransky, a well-known Las Vegas gambler and sports consultant with Sportsmemo.com, agrees.
But that doesn’t mean you have to bet like a “square” and throw away your hard-earned money.
“The biggest mistake that amateur bettors make is they increase their bets when they are losing,” Sevransky says. Locks Don’t Exist – “Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing, especially against the spread, can be infinitesimally small,” Gordon says. The only touts bettors should consider are the ones who talk about the long haul and realistic winning percentages, which are in the upper 50 percent to lower 60 percent range.”
“In an average season, fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit,” Gordon says. Slim underdogs regularly win outright.
3. “There will be more discrepancy in the numbers at different sports books. If North Texas is his best bet on a Saturday then that is his bet. Money Management – “This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting on sports and possibly the most neglected,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. “For example, if you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”
Betting on football games; whether it’s through a local bookie, an offshore Internet site or a Nevada casino (still the only legal place in America to make football bets), most of us have done it or know of someone who has. “He is not jaded by teams and does not bet with his heart. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.”
Another difference between squares and sharps is how they approach betting on game day.
“A square or recreational player might have a vague plan, but after two Corona’s he will definitely run to the window and make a hasty decision on the USC-Notre Dame game because he wants to be involved in the party atmosphere,” Vaccaro says. “Thus, the bookies love and cherish the squares.”
But even though the math says it’s virtually impossible to win on a consistent basis, Americans continue to bet on football. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites. Shop For Numbers – “Another important aspect of betting on football is shopping for the best number,” Moseman explains